Information Package / Course Catalogue
Time Series Analysis
Course Code: İKP604
Course Type: Area Elective
Couse Group: Third Cycle (Doctorate Degree)
Education Language: Turkish
Work Placement: N/A
Theory: 3
Prt.: 0
Credit: 3
Lab: 0
ECTS: 5
Objectives of the Course

To provide an advanced understanding of the core principles of time series analysis. To ensure students are competent in the use of time series methods, and are familiar with the relevant statistical software. To introduce to students an appreciation of recent developments in time series analysis, and of the links between the theory of the topics and their practical application in various industries. To develop knowledge, understanding and skills in applied computing and statistics.

Course Content

Stationary processes, autoregressive and moving average processes, trend, seasonality, model building, estimation and forecasting, spectral analysis and estimation, Kalman filtering and predictions, higher-order spectral analysis, nonlinear and non-Gaussian time series, weakly and strictly stationary stochastic processes, ergodic and ensemble theory, time and frequency domain, spectral decomposition theory, multivariate spectra, estimation and inference of non-stationary time series.

Name of Lecturer(s)
Assoc. Prof. Şahin BULUT
Learning Outcomes
1.Apply the appropriate techniques to make better forecasts and identify trends, seasonal changes, and cycles in data.
2.Understand how to choose the right forecasting model.
3.Become familiar with classification and formulation of advanced time series metthods.
4.Analyze the stationarity and characteristics of time series models.
5.Apply time series analysis in various forecasting problems and interpret and report the results of prediction and forecasting.
Recommended or Required Reading
1.Bisgaard, S. & Kulahci, M. (2011). Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example, John Wiley & Sons
2.Harris, R. & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons
Weekly Detailed Course Contents
Week 1 - Theoretical
Basic Concepts, Graphical Tools, and Time Series Examples
Week 2 - Theoretical
Regression, Trend, and Seasonality
Week 3 - Theoretical
Time Series Model Evaluation and Selection Criteria
Week 4 - Theoretical
Stationary Models
Week 5 - Theoretical
Moving Average and Autoregressive Processes
Week 6 - Theoretical
Spectral Theory and Filtering
Week 7 - Theoretical
Non-stationary Models
Week 8 - Intermediate Exam
Midterm
Week 9 - Theoretical
Unit Root and Explosive Time Series
Week 10 - Theoretical
Seasonal Time Series
Week 11 - Theoretical
Multivariate Time Series
Week 12 - Theoretical
State-Space Models
Week 13 - Theoretical
Transfer Function Models
Week 14 - Theoretical
Nonlinear Models
Week 15 - Theoretical
Further Topics
Week 16 - Final Exam
Final
Assessment Methods and Criteria
Type of AssessmentCountPercent
Midterm Examination1%40
Final Examination1%60
Workload Calculation
ActivitiesCountPreparationTimeTotal Work Load (hours)
Lecture - Theory142370
Individual Work141242
Midterm Examination1819
Final Examination19110
TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours)131
Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes
PÇ-1
PÇ-2
PÇ-3
PÇ-4
PÇ-5
PÇ-6
PÇ-7
OÇ-1
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
OÇ-2
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
OÇ-3
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
OÇ-4
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
OÇ-5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Adnan Menderes University - Information Package / Course Catalogue
2026