Information Package / Course Catalogue
Forecasting Techniques
Course Code: EK350
Course Type: Area Elective
Couse Group: First Cycle (Bachelor's Degree)
Education Language: Turkish
Work Placement: N/A
Theory: 3
Prt.: 0
Credit: 3
Lab: 0
ECTS: 5
Objectives of the Course

Classification of forecasting methods used in business and economics sciences, features of forecasting methods, forecasting method selection, model selection, forecasting model, testing the validity of the model and checking model

Course Content

To identify the appropriate forecasting method,obtaining predictions from sampling method, be able to test the validity of the obtained predictions,be comparable in prediction methods.

Name of Lecturer(s)
Learning Outcomes
1.To identify the appropriate forecasting method.
2.To determine properties of the resulting predictions
3.Obtaining predictions from sampling method
4. Be able to test the validity of the obtained predictions
5. Be comparable in prediction methods.
Recommended or Required Reading
1.Tahmin için İstatistiksel Yöntemler, B. Abraham ve J. Ledorter Statistical Methods for Forecasting, B. Abraham ve J. Ledorter
Weekly Detailed Course Contents
Week 1 - Theoretical
To identify the appropriate forecasting method.
Week 2 - Theoretical
Exponential smoothing method in non-seasonal data: fixed averaged model, single-stage exponential smooth
Week 3 - Theoretical
The two-stage and three-stage exponential smoothing method
Week 4 - Theoretical
Exponential smoothing method in seasonal data
Week 5 - Theoretical
Winter's method and seasonal adjustment
Week 6 - Theoretical
Stochastic time series models: Autoregressive model
Week 7 - Theoretical
Moving Average Model
Week 8 - Theoretical
Moving Average Model
Week 9 - Theoretical
Autoregressive moving average model
Week 10 - Theoretical
Stationarity, transformations and seasonal autoregressive moving average model
Week 11 - Theoretical
Least squares estimation, maximum likelihood estimation, nonlinear estimation
Week 12 - Theoretical
Diagnosis and control of the model, multiplicative seasonal models
Week 13 - Theoretical
The relationships between the general exponential smoothing and ARIMA time series models
Week 14 - Practice
Applications
Assessment Methods and Criteria
Type of AssessmentCountPercent
Midterm Examination1%40
Final Examination1%70
Workload Calculation
ActivitiesCountPreparationTimeTotal Work Load (hours)
Lecture - Theory142370
Individual Work72228
Midterm Examination110111
Final Examination115116
TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours)125
Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes
PÇ-1
PÇ-2
PÇ-3
PÇ-4
PÇ-5
PÇ-6
PÇ-7
PÇ-8
PÇ-9
OÇ-1
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
OÇ-2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OÇ-3
2
2
2
5
5
2
2
2
2
OÇ-4
4
4
2
2
2
5
3
3
3
OÇ-5
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Adnan Menderes University - Information Package / Course Catalogue
2026