
| Course Code | : İKT389 |
| Course Type | : Area Elective |
| Couse Group | : First Cycle (Bachelor's Degree) |
| Education Language | : Turkish |
| Work Placement | : N/A |
| Theory | : 3 |
| Prt. | : 0 |
| Credit | : 3 |
| Lab | : 0 |
| ECTS | : 5 |
The aim of this course is to enable students to understand the basic characteristics of time series data, analyze stationarity and unit root concepts, apply univariate and multivariate time series models, and make forecasts using economic and financial data. Within the scope of the course, students are expected to learn fundamental time series methods such as AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA, VAR, cointegration, error correction models, causality tests, and volatility models. The course also aims to help students conduct empirical analysis using econometric software, interpret model results, and present findings in an academic report format.
This course covers the structure of time series data, trend, seasonality, stationarity, autocorrelation, unit root tests, AR, MA, ARMA and ARIMA models, model selection, forecasting, VAR models, Granger causality test, cointegration analysis, error correction models, ARCH/GARCH volatility models, and econometric software used in time series analysis. Throughout the course, students learn how to analyze economic and financial time series, select an appropriate econometric model, test model assumptions, interpret forecasting results, and prepare an empirical analysis report.
| 1. | Explain the basic characteristics and components of time series data and their applications in economic and financial analyses. |
| 2. | Analyze stationarity, autocorrelation, unit root, and trend concepts and apply appropriate data transformations. |
| 3. | Specify, estimate, and interpret AR, MA, ARMA, and ARIMA models. |
| 4. | Use VAR models, Granger causality tests, cointegration analysis, and error correction models to examine economic relationships. |
| 5. | Evaluate volatility structures in financial time series and apply ARCH/GARCH models at a basic level. |
| 6. | Conduct empirical analysis on real time series data using econometric software and present findings in academic report/presentation format. |
| 1. | Sevüktekin, M., & Çınar, M. Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi. Dora Publishing. |
| 2. | Enders, W. Applied Econometric Time Series. Wiley. |
| 3. | Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. Temel Ekonometri. Literatür Yayıncılık. |
| 4. | Tarı, R. Econometrics. Umuttepe Publishing. |
| Type of Assessment | Count | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Practice | 1 | %15 |
| Presentation | 1 | %15 |
| Midterm Examination | 1 | %30 |
| Final Examination | 1 | %40 |
| Activities | Count | Preparation | Time | Total Work Load (hours) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecture - Theory | 1 | 0 | 45 | 45 |
| Lecture - Practice | 1 | 0 | 30 | 30 |
| Presentation | 1 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| Midterm Examination | 1 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
| Final Examination | 1 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours) | 125 | |||
PÇ-1 | PÇ-2 | PÇ-3 | PÇ-4 | PÇ-5 | PÇ-6 | PÇ-7 | |
OÇ-1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
OÇ-2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
OÇ-3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
OÇ-4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
OÇ-5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
OÇ-6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |