Information Package / Course Catalogue
Time Series Econometrics
Course Code: İKT389
Course Type: Area Elective
Couse Group: First Cycle (Bachelor's Degree)
Education Language: Turkish
Work Placement: N/A
Theory: 3
Prt.: 0
Credit: 3
Lab: 0
ECTS: 5
Objectives of the Course

The aim of this course is to enable students to understand the basic characteristics of time series data, analyze stationarity and unit root concepts, apply univariate and multivariate time series models, and make forecasts using economic and financial data. Within the scope of the course, students are expected to learn fundamental time series methods such as AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA, VAR, cointegration, error correction models, causality tests, and volatility models. The course also aims to help students conduct empirical analysis using econometric software, interpret model results, and present findings in an academic report format.

Course Content

This course covers the structure of time series data, trend, seasonality, stationarity, autocorrelation, unit root tests, AR, MA, ARMA and ARIMA models, model selection, forecasting, VAR models, Granger causality test, cointegration analysis, error correction models, ARCH/GARCH volatility models, and econometric software used in time series analysis. Throughout the course, students learn how to analyze economic and financial time series, select an appropriate econometric model, test model assumptions, interpret forecasting results, and prepare an empirical analysis report.

Name of Lecturer(s)
Learning Outcomes
1.Explain the basic characteristics and components of time series data and their applications in economic and financial analyses.
2.Analyze stationarity, autocorrelation, unit root, and trend concepts and apply appropriate data transformations.
3.Specify, estimate, and interpret AR, MA, ARMA, and ARIMA models.
4.Use VAR models, Granger causality tests, cointegration analysis, and error correction models to examine economic relationships.
5.Evaluate volatility structures in financial time series and apply ARCH/GARCH models at a basic level.
6.Conduct empirical analysis on real time series data using econometric software and present findings in academic report/presentation format.
Recommended or Required Reading
1.Sevüktekin, M., & Çınar, M. Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi. Dora Publishing.
2.Enders, W. Applied Econometric Time Series. Wiley.
3.Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. Temel Ekonometri. Literatür Yayıncılık.
4.Tarı, R. Econometrics. Umuttepe Publishing.
Weekly Detailed Course Contents
Week 1 - Theoretical
Introduction to Time Series Econometrics
Week 2 - Theoretical
Components of Time Series and Data Preparation
Week 3 - Theoretical
Autocorrelation, Partial Autocorrelation, and Stationarity
Week 4 - Theoretical
Unit Root Tests and Stationarization Methods
Week 5 - Theoretical
Autoregressive Models
Week 6 - Theoretical
Moving Average Models and ARMA Models
Week 7 - Theoretical
ARIMA Models and the Box-Jenkins Approach
Week 8 - Theoretical
Forecasting, Model Performance, and Diagnostic Tests
Week 9 - Theoretical
Introduction to Multivariate Time Series and VAR Models
Week 10 - Theoretical
Granger Causality Analysis
Week 11 - Theoretical
Cointegration Analysis and Error Correction Models
Week 12 - Theoretical
Financial Time Series and ARCH/GARCH Models
Week 13 - Theoretical
Applied Time Series Project and General Evaluation I
Week 14 - Theoretical
Applied Time Series Project and General Evaluation II
Assessment Methods and Criteria
Type of AssessmentCountPercent
Practice1%15
Presentation1%15
Midterm Examination1%30
Final Examination1%40
Workload Calculation
ActivitiesCountPreparationTimeTotal Work Load (hours)
Lecture - Theory104545
Lecture - Practice103030
Presentation 102020
Midterm Examination19110
Final Examination102020
TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours)125
Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes
PÇ-1
PÇ-2
PÇ-3
PÇ-4
PÇ-5
PÇ-6
PÇ-7
OÇ-1
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
OÇ-2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OÇ-3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
OÇ-4
5
5
5
5
3
3
5
OÇ-5
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
OÇ-6
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Adnan Menderes University - Information Package / Course Catalogue
2026